We hear it all the time: the real estate market in the metro area will really pick up after the elections, especially this year. Regardless of who wins, there's going to be a change in the White House, and there's always change in Congress. And that means new jobs and lots of folks coming to town. But is that really true?

Let's take a look at the basics. There are 3,000 Presidentially appointed jobs and 24,000 jobs on the Hill. On the surface, that many jobs should have an enormous impact on the real estate market, but let's break it down.

Look at the White House. Assume that every single job changes hands, and that there are a considerable number of staff jobs that change with them. Being generous, that could be as many of 8,000 jobs - but let's also talk about the reality of Washington. Lots of the people who will fill those jobs already live here - call it the Potomac Two-Step. Folks currently "out" in the private sector dance "in," and those that are currently "in" dance over to think tanks and other jobs. Again, let's be generous and say that fully half of all of those jobs get filled by folks who move here from parts beyond. It takes almost 18 months for all of those posts to be approved by Congress, so we're looking at 4,000 out-of-towners getting new jobs - and let's finally assume that half of those buy homes in the first year. That would be about 2,000 home purchases.

On the Hill, 8,600 jobs are "non-partisan" and don't change when new members arrive in town, so there are roughly 15,400 jobs subject to change. The reality of our system is that a huge change in the makeup of Congress really means no more than a 10% turnover, so that would mean 54 new Members and their staffs. Assume that every single one of the roughly 1,540 staff jobs changes hands, and that half of the new hires come here from out of town. Staff pay is such that only about half could afford to buy a home in this area, so let's further assume that everyone that can buy does, and that they buy right away. If every new member buys and the staff acts as we have described, about 400 homes would be purchased in the first half of 2009 because of Congressional changes.

We will see no more than 2,400 homes change hands as the result of the upcoming elections, spread over a year. And that's being very generous. In a "typical" year, there are roughly 50,000 home sales in Washington, DC and the contiguous counties. (This does not include Loudoun and Prince William Counties in Virginia, or Frederick of Howard Counties in Maryland.) 2,400 purchasers would increase demand by no more than 5% - more of a "blip" than a "boom."

And there is one other significant factor to consider: individuals do not make a decision to purchase a home in a vacuum. Just moving to the area to take a new job - even a new job on the Hill or in the Executive branch - does not cause an individual to ignore overall market conditions. There are reasons that potential purchasers today are reluctant to buy, and those reasons aren't going to disappear because of the elections. Remember the most recent Congressional elections? Democrats swept to victory in the Senate, picking up 5 seats, and in the House, picking up 30 seats; it was considered a huge change, justifiably so. So what happened in the housing market? In the first six months of 2007 - the immediate aftermath of the election - there was a decline of 15% in contract activity compared to the first six months of 2000. In 2000, there was a change in the party holding the White House and a net change of 8 seats on the Hill. There was an 8% increase in contract activity in the six months right after the election compared to the same six month period of the previous year.

The bottom line: the post-election "boom" is a myth, and one should not base one's housing decisions based on the supposed impact of the election. As we have always maintained, sell when it is the right time for you and your family to sell; buy when it is the right time for you and your family to buy. Market timing is a pretty risky endeavor - particularly if one's timing is based on politics.